When will sensex reach 100000 ? #sensex@100000

Sensex will definitely reach 100000. This is like saying " you will die one day".

"When will sensex reach 100000? ", this question has been lingering in my mind for quite some time now. 

When I was reading this article in business standard, this morning, the following sentence caught my attention.

“We believe equities will likely be the best performing asset class in the coming decade for domestic investors. We expect the BSE Sensex to deliver annual returns of 14 per cent over the next 10 years, based on our residual income model,” Morgan Stanley says.

Based on the above , I did a linear calculation  which is presented below.

Assumption 1:- Sensex levels of 27500 for 2015 ( dont ask me "how", I just assumed the current levels)

Assumption 2:- Sensex level  will grow 14% year on year in a linear fashion- (the linear growth  is not going to be a reality - as we know about volatility, average return, standard deviation, etc )

Year Sensex
2015 27500
2016 31350
2017 35739
2018 40742
2019 46446
2020 52949
2021 60362
2022 68812
2023 78446
2024 89429
2025 101949

So, by this calculation you can expect sensex to be at 100000 in another 10 years . But  looking at the current trend of EPS growth, 14% pa growth  may remain a dream.
on the other hand, if growth picks up , we may reach there faster ( irrational exuberance!!).
In short, no one knows the  correct answer!

Disclaimer:- This post is not intended to advise anyone to invest in equities.Look at it only from an academic/ entertainment perspective.

The Game of Life #Ramayana #BookReview

Shattered dreams is part 2 in the series "Ramayana - The Game of Life".

When I received this book , I had very little expectations in terms of the content. Having read Ramayana multiple times , I didn't expect anything different or fascinating from the book. I hadn't heard of the authors previous work on the same tittle ( prequel). But the experience of reading this book turned out to be positively surprising when compared to my expectations. To put in simple words, this is one of the best books that I have ever read on "Ramayana".

"What do you do when you are informed that you will be made the emperor of a Kingdom one fine day. Do you maintain your poise or jump in joy. Do you worry about the huge responsibility that comes with the crown or look forward to take up the challenge. When you are approaching the situation very positively and give your 100% in preparation, what if there is a reversal of the decision. Do you blame the  people , fate or go around lamenting or Do you accept this decision whole heartedly. And when the decision to take away the crown from you is combined with a decision to send you to the forest for 14 years, How do you handle the situation?"

The author brings across such questions along the story line and in the process reveals why "Rama" is an incarnation par excellence. Rama's " equanimity of mind" is very clearly elucidated by the author in the process of story telling.

The finer aspects of all the characters are brought forward very easily and lucidly by the author. Sumanthara, Dasaratha, Kaikeyi, Kaushalya, Sumitra, Sita, Lakshmana, Urmila, Bharata, Sathrugana, Guha , Bharatwaja, Atri, Anusuya - All of these characters leave an impact on you for ever. 
 Most of the characters do get angry , do get judgemental , emotional, et all but all these turn positive as these emotions are displayed in a pure selfless spirit.The Love for Rama shown by the people of ayodhya and those around him are very clearly put forth by the author.

The "Notes" at the bottom of the page as the story unfolds is one of the key attraction of this book. 

A few samples.

"The gift of health, fearlessness, talent, beauty and experience of joy is the result of grace. But real grace lies not just in possessing these qualities but laso in being grateful for these qulaities. The highest manifestation of gracefulness if gratefulness"

"Past mistakes are like a man dressed in black running after you with a knife.No matter how fast you run away from the past, it catches up with you.And when it does, it plunges the Knife right into you, causing suffering.When you know that your present suffering is related to a past mistake, shame is replaced with guilt"

"Uncertainity becomes a joy when you welcome flexibility instead of set expectations"

The author has done extensive research on Ramayana and that is clearly visible in the output.
Overall the book is a must read for all . I definitely plan to read this book again.!

I would give the book a 4 star on a scale of five :-)

This review is a part of the biggest Book Review Program for Indian Bloggers. Participate now to get free books!

Benefit of #direct mutual fund #investing

From 1st of January, 2013 SEBI introduced the option of investing in the "Direct Plan" of  the existing schemes of mutual funds.( When you send your application to the fund house directly without a "broker code" or transact online without a broker code - it is called a direct investment)

Wanted to check how the "direct" schemes have fared over the "regular" schemes. Roughly for the two year period, the following difference is seen in NAV between direct and regular schemes of randomly chosen equity MF schemes.

Please note that although the percentage difference might look small,the benefit will be seen more" clearly" depending on the absolute sum of corpus invested in the schemes.Example, investor having more than 1 crore in a scheme would have saved more than 1.5 lakhs in two years.( savings till date- not looking into future savings) 

If you know to choose the right schemes ( it is not as complicated as knowing the right "stocks"), you should try and opt for direct investing in mutual fund schemes.

Fund- Growth Scheme Regular Direct Diff* %
HDFC Top 200 352.025 356.157 1.17%
ICICI Pru Dynamic 188.7277 191.4078 1.42%
UTI Opportunities 49.2846 50.0483 1.55%
Franklin India Bluechip 347.7465 353.3355 1.61%
Reliance Growth 786.723 797.0294 1.31%
Sundaram Select Midcap Fund 323.8099 327.5543 1.16%
Birla Sun Life Frontline Equity 161.57 164.3 1.69%
* Difference in returns for the period 1 Jan 2013 to 16 Jan 2015
Direct schemes were introduced on 1  Jan 2013
Wishing you a successful "direct" investing.

7.5X in ten years

How my first equity (mutual fund) investment has fared?

  • Almost ten years since I made my first equity mutual fund investment, the amount is now more than seven times the original investment after a lot of ups and downs. ( CAGR- 22.7%- tax free)
  • This was an NFO investment and the product was "sold" to me. In recent years, I am not a fan of NFOs.
  • Even if the markets fall by half now, the investment would have grown 3.5 times, which is not bad
  • Key learning during last 10 years
    • Direct equity investment is not easy for an individual investor . Need a lot of time, research and also luck to beat the market.
    • Investing through  diversified equity fund or balanced funds with a track record ( through SIP) is one of the easier option available to retail investors.
    • Dont track market news on a day to day basis.
    • Have very reasonable expectations from equity market in terms of returns (inflation + 2-5%).
    • Time in the market is more important than timing the market- but if you buy any asset with a high valuation ( including blue chip shares or equity MF), you may have to wait for a very long time to even  recover your capital. So, try to practice low P/E or low P/B investing which is easier said than done.
    • Understanding risks involved is very important before investing in equity - Volatility, average return, standard deviation ,etc.
    • Finally, Power of compounding is amazing. Experience it- to realize it :-) .
  • Happy new year and happy investing!
This post is not a recommendation to buy any mutual fund.

Business in the name of "Religion"

I hear a lot of criticism around the movie "PK" for making fun of religion esp. Hinduism. I haven't watched the movie yet but based on what I have heard , I see a lot of correlation with real life mockery being done in the name of religion. 
Here's one such example:-  There was a news article about 108 divya desam lords ( 108 vishnu temples sung by alwars) in one of chennai's leading news paper.Me and my wife got curios as to what this was about .We had also seen a few posters on the streets of chennai about the same place. We thought this should be some earnest attempt to recreate the 108 divya desam lords in chennai. We googled to find more information and saw that this was organized at shrivaaru venkatachalapathy palace vanagaram.

We decided to go and drove down.On reaching the place, we were charged Rs 100/ per head and Rs 20/ for car parking. No complaints yet, the expectations were real high as to "How would be the recreation of those 108 divine lords".

Within a few seconds of entering the hall, I was left with nothing but disappointed. Replicas of divya desam lords were made with sub standard attention. All 108 lords were recognizable only by posture a.k.a sitting standing or lying. Apart from this , there was no significant effort made to distinguish between the look or portray any significance of the specific lord. Only if you read the name board, you would know who the lord was and the name of the divya desam.

The display of lords was followed by a mini "food" exhibition.( obviously, you need to pay for the food)

There was a lot of crowd going around merrily taking pictures.of course, you might argue that one shouldn't expect too much from such "exhibitions". . In fact apart from the entry fee, I also saw some people throwing money at the idols, coconuts and arthi plates being sold at counters , etc etc.

But I see this as a ruthless effort to earn money out of a vacant mandapam ( In chennai-No one hires a marriage hall in Dec-Jan season) using an unpatented concept of 108 divya desam. 

These guys in collaboration with another tamil magazine- Kumudam "Bhakthi"?? have made a fortune with just the title 108 divya desam without actually making any effort to justify the theme.

But if some one makes fun of  us , we get real angry :-) ( Including me). The fact is there are a lot of folks who know to  milk money out of "religion".
Web ideasmoney.blogspot.com

Simple Indian Food - Feel @home ( Best veg food blog )

" A Ship is safe when it is in Harbour, but the ship was not built for that"


These are just opinions/ ideas exchanged. No one can claim us responsible for any investment failures /losses based on the ideas expressed here.

Feel free to mail your queries/ comments to ideas.money@gmail.com