I am just recollecting the days when sensex was around 6000 ( Around early 2005), most of the business news channels were talking about sensex hovering around 'a peak'. one of the most watched business channels even aired the thoughts that investors need to be cautious as the sensex was at near all time highs.
When the sensex was around 8000 sometime later, our FM had issued some statements asking the retail investors to be careful. I don't remember any confidence aired by any of the experts at that point of time that sensex can touch 14,000. I remember to have read an article in rediff which said sensex was likely to touch 14-15000 levels . But , it had stated almost a longer time frame for that to happen when compared to the real speed in which sensex touched 14000.
It is very clear that any amount of expertise cannot predict the direction of sensex (exactly). This is not because that sensex (figure) is irrational always. But this is because there are a lot of factors that determine the course of index . Any movement in the globe may affect any of the indices as we are in flatter world compared to the yesteryears. All the more , investor's (and trader's) response to situations are also difficult to predict which to an extent determines the movement of the indices.
So, what can be the conclusion now. whenever you hear a prediction for the stock indices neither listen to it fully or ignore it completely. Be clear that patience (time) is the key virtue that an investor should possess .Always give a longer time frame for your investments to grow in the equity market unless you are a day trader!.
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